SARS nCoV2 may Become Endemic BUT… World Must Remain Alert for Another Delta-like Devastation
Covid19 has been devastating the world over the last 2 yrs. As of 15 Jan 22, the tested cases have been 325 million against the world population of ~7954 million. Of these near 8 billion populations, only about 25% have been tested so far, that too mostly in the urban areas. Hence, the true picture of the Covid19 cases whether symptomatic or otherwise, are not known BUT…surely the virus will not distinguish among the subjects, their ages, sexes, races, religions, economic status, geographical belonging and so on. So, surely all regions across the world where people interact and come across strangers from other regions, this virus must have travelled, whether detected or not.
If Corona virus has travelled far and wide, Covid19 too would have been caused whether detected or not. In one study, 77% Covid19 patients were found asymptomatic against 23 symptomatic (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220322943). If we apply the above logic, owing to 325 million Covid19 patients in the world, there could be 1088 million asymptomatic subjects silently spreading the infection. The total symptomatic plus asymptomatic cases will be ~1413 million. Then if we apply the formula of each infected case spreading the infection to 1.6 subjects (leaving out Omicron that is 5 times more infective), totals ~3674 million infected cases in the world could be present most of whom are undetected though. It’s a huge number of the world adult and adolescent population, all of whom must have had varying immunological responses whether vaccinated or not.
The above assumptions of the author are just for one reason…the extent of emerging immunity in the world population. The immunity will not be identical in all nations. It will vary with the numbers of the Corona infected as well as the numbers of people immunised. In some countries, the authorities may assume or decide that they have immunised all their vulnerable population or achieved ‘herd immunity’. Beyond this point, if the infections are still taking place, it could be assumed with a fair certainty of the virus becoming endemic and frame their national health policies accordingly. UK is the first country that has realised it and has accepted that they will have to live with it. Many other health experts too have sounded their concerns that the world may have to live with Covid19. The virus will keep changing its strains and antigenicity periodically to cause recurrent waves of infections including those fully immunised. However, no one can predict as to when a highly virulent mutant will show-up to devastate the world again like the Delta strain. The creator(s) of SARS nCoV2 have really doomed the world. Whether it was Ms ZhengLi, the bat-woman or anyone else creating the ‘Gain of Function’ research, the world populace has been put under grief for the unforeseen times. The worse was the WHO response in not initiating a transparent and effective investigation to the origin/source of this deadly virus that devastated the Lives and economies in the world.
Leaving out the 2nd wave of Delta, the Covid19 morbidity and mortalities in 3rd world countries have been comparatively lesser. For this, several reasons and explanations have been put forth by the experts. It is believed that regions where genetically similar viruses exist, some form of innate immunity was present that reduced the impacts of the initial pandemic. In Indian peninsula, SARS, influenza and some other partially resembling virus have been endemic. This could be the reason for lesser impacts of Covid19? However, there is no specific research done in this regard to either affirm or negate it. It could be expected that huge numbers of Covid19 infections (symptomatic or otherwise) along with vaccinations, has started producing herd immunities in many parts of the world as explained above. It is evidenced by the lower morbidity and mortality of the newer strains. However, should a newer variant arise with troublesome consequences (like tissue oxygen lowering of Delta), the world could be devastated once again despite herd immunity and vaccinations. Hence, the world health authorities must remain ever vigilant and alert before a newer strain paralyses us again.
It is known that this virus is not suspended in air whether in cities or the countrysidse. Other than the immediate vicinity of the Covid cases and in their rooms owing to coughing, sneezing and talking, the virus is not in the environment. BUT…there are concern areas too…of Covid inappropriate behaviours. These behaviours on part of the infected people include evading isolation/quarantine, not using masks, coughing, sneezing, talking in open in the proximity of people, not sanitising hands, not observing physical/social distancing and not observing suitable disposal of contaminated masks/fomites. They often hide their Covid positive status. We had observed it in form of Covid Spit Jihad in the initial months and it continues happening even today by some indulgent arrogant. Covid inappropriate behaviours of even the general public are the reasons for the spread. Large gatherings, election rallies etc are uncalled for in times of ongoing waves of Covid infections.
There is one lesser reason for the spread of the virus that very few know. It is inappropriately disposed masks and other fomites. Today in every dump of garbage, one can find some masks and contaminated tissue papers. It draws flies and insects which could surely carry the virus to the households. Rag-pickers and poor children often pick-up the masks without realising the consequences. Whether these habits are causing spread of Covid19 or not, is not documented though.
The continuing Covid19 over the last two years of the pandemic is a matter of grave concern. By virtue of its nature, the RNA virus had been changing its strains of Alfa, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omicron and so on and numerous more could come in the future. Infection with newer variants may start in any part of the world and then spread over. The newer infections are taking place even among those fully vaccinated but surely with milder course. There is no guaranty that an odd highly virulent variant (like the Delta) will not arise again and ravage the world. There is no way the virus can be eradicated. The virus is here to stay and in all likelihood, become endemic. The world has to live with it. The name of Ms ZhengLi may find mentions in the pages of history either synonymous with Corona Virus or many may know SARS nCoV2 as ZhengLi Virus. Even WHO would be remembered for their collusion with the Chinese authorities in not investigating Wuhan Virus Lab, the most probable location for the origin of nCoV2.
It is important that some form of immunity comes among the larger population (~70%) whether through vaccination or Covid19 infections (clinically symptomatic, asymptomatic or through sub-clinical exposures). This herd immunity will lessen the spread and severity of the infections but this virus will remain in our environment and we have to live with it.